GOLD IS A HISTORY AND CONSTANT

By Adrian Ash

Stock market bulls never read history, as in anything from the day before yesterday, and least of all the pink pages' price/earnings table today.

So the library shelves marked "332" under the Dewey Decimal system are typically left free for bears and gold investors to roam. And glancing at how long the stock-bull of 1982-2000 ran, you can see why.

Gold lost three-quarters of its purchasing power during that time. Only the grand sweep of history then proved that the glass was neither half-empty or full, but shattered...as the much-fabled history-loving "gold bug" believed all along.

"Gold has two interesting properties: it is cherished and it is indestructible. It is never cast away and it never diminishes, except by outright loss..."

So wrote Professor Roy Jastram in The Golden Constant (John Wiley & Sons, 1977). Alongside Peter Bernstein's The Power of Gold and H.W.Brands' The Age of Gold – but swapping their ripping yarns for dry, scholarly tables of grain prices from the 18th century – it's one of the very few books to acknowledge what die-hard gold investors feel so sure to be true:

Gold is much more than mere metal. It's history itself.

"[Gold] can be melted down, but it never changes its chemistry or weight in the process. The ring worn today may contain particles mined in the time of the Pharaohs. In this sense it is also a constant."

It's not something you can say of many other investments. Atomic weight 79; melting point 1064°C at sea level; cooled density 19.25 grams per cubic centimetre...gold's got everything a collateralized debt obligation has not. Time cannot dull or change it. Debt default can't diminish its value (provided you own it, securely, outright of course). And as Jastram's detailed study of four centuries shows, gold's value, like its nature, also displays something of a constant – constant across the long term at least – as measured against wholesale prices.

Trouble is, as Marc Faber of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report reminded us late in 2008 – just as gold was sinking alongside everything else – "Gold has kept its purchasing power over the course of history...[but] the problem is that the owners of the gold changed over time."

How long can you wait for your wealth-store to return to full value? Or as Faber put it, "When Timur sacked Aleppo and Damascus in 1400, it didn't help to have your savings in gold. You lost your life and your gold."

Tamberlaine's Mongol heirs soon enough lost that gold, too. But amid such cataclysms, Jastram saw instead what he called "The Attila Effect" – the plain fact that, as Jill Leyland explains in her additions to the new, re-issued and updated text of The Golden Constant, "Men and women have turned to gold in times of distress, whether political, economic or personal..."

"The Latifundia passed gold bars secretly to their heirs," wrote Jastram 32 years ago, "who thus survived barbarian invasions to become nobility under the Merovingian kings of the fourth century...Austrian refugees, escaping Hitler's storm troopers, often owed their survival in a new country to the gold and jewels they could carry on their persons...The French peasant was astute when he buried his coins on the threat of invasion and pillage..."

Through such crises as the French and Bolshevik Revolutions, as well as Hungary's post-war hyperinflation – worse even than Weimar Germany's one trillion per cent on some accounts – gold retained its ability to raise cash, if not act as payment itself, for those lucky few who'd chosen to hoard it ahead of the need.

Nor does history require "extreme episodes", as Leyland writes in the new 2009 edition, "to demonstrate the value of gold in a crisis..."

Jastram's study famously split the history of gold's purchasing power into inflation, deflation, and the rest. Since gold was usually money during the first 350 years of his scope, it also acted quite oddly to our 21st century view:

Gold's value rose during deflation, but fell during inflation. Whereas today, of course, everyone expects gold to rise when the cost of living increases, but fall when the threat of inflation recedes. Which may or may not be wrong, but the first post-Gold Standard inflation said otherwise, and it most likely won't matter given the volume of faith this very modern idea now stores.

Hence Leyland's labels for her post-Jastram charts (the thirty years from 1977), which first concur with but tweaking his framework ("High Inflation: 1970-1980"; "Disinflation: 1980-2000"). To fit non-money gold's four-fold increase so far this decade, however, a whole new category's needed – "2000-2007: Inflation fears revived".

And the future? Inflationary fears will be revived by the price of the new Golden Constant, costing $110 in the US, or a shocking £79.95 in the UK...equal to a Dollar exchange rate of just $1.37. Yet this is a scholarly tome, and even corduroy jackets aren't cheap. Second-hand stores, meantime, are still charging $181 or more for the 1978 hardback (worse yet again in the UK, priced at £157.98 with a quarter-century-busting $1.14 on cable. How's that for the grand sweep of history!).

If you or the gold bug in your life needs reassurance this winter that, in the long-run at least, gold's constant purchasing power is as rare and precious as its substance, you could do much worse than treat him for Christmas.

Just don't expect to see much of him (and let's face it, it will be a him...) outside your library on Boxing Day.

Sumber: http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-is-a-history-and-constant-2318.....4-3-1.html

sapa2 berminat nak beli emas melalui ASB boleh masuk website saya http://www.pokli.com

macam mana dgn ASB pun boleh beli emas tanpa keluar duit ASB

kalau dah pandai boleh join rangkaian emas POKLI

jadi agen saya & syukor

Admin

http://www.pokli.com

Target 1000 orang agen

harga emas sudah keluar dari fasa sideway, setelah ada dua pasang Double Top dan Double bottom terbentuk dan ia terus menjunam naik sampai hujung minggu ini. Para analisis emas menjangkakan, jika harga emas boleh melepasi paras harga tertinggi USD 1000/ oz, harga pecah rekod!! Maka bull run akan terus berlaku. Tetapi sekiranya price tak berjaya melepasi tahap USD1000 / oz dan jatuh sehingga paras USD 920 / oz, maka dah boleh mula menjual semua emas yang ada, kerana musim bear run akan berlaku. Fakta ini berdasarkan fundamental report di bawah;

http://www.financialsense.com/...../0903.html

Ini pula ulasan pada satu artikel yang agak menarik minat saya dan juga pelabur emas lain, yang boleh dijadikan panduan melabur emas iaitu Bulan September adalah THE BEST MONTH FOR GOLD sebab in September berdasarkan kajian tahun-tahun yang lepas, September bull run biasanya akan mula berlaku dan ia boleh naik tinggi mengalahkan lain-lain bulan dalam setahun.

Kenaikan ini disebabkan 4 perkara utama demand emas amat tinggi

1. Oleh kerana India adalah pengguna emas terbesar dunia, maka musim post monsoon perayaan Diwali dan musim orang kahwin di India jadi sebab ramai rakyatnya beli emas.
2. Tukang-tukang emas mula beli stok baru emas untuk ditempa dan dijual semula untuk musim perayaan Christmas sekejap lagi di US.
3. Perayaan Hari Raya yang akan disambut pada Oktober ini menggalakkan ramai muslim seluruh dunia membeli emas awal-awal.
4. Di China, sambutan Hari Kemerdekaan yang akan bermula 1 Oktober dan sambutan festival Tahun Baru China awal tahun 2010 menggalakkan ramai rakyatnya membeli emas awal-awal.

Sumber : http://www.financialsense.com/...../0831.html

Di sini saya ingin berkongsi satu news yang agak menarik yang saya kira dapat dijadikan panduan dalam menentukan timing terbaik untuk membeli dan menjual emas anda….agar ia tidak hilang……(tak rugi)

Based pada artikel ini yang telah dilakukan oleh penganalisis emas berdasarkan past performance tahun-tahun lepas…..

based pada prediction di artikel di blog saya…..yang lepas, harga emas sudah keluar dari fasa sideway, setelah ada dua pasang Double Top dan Double bottom terbentuk dan ia terus menjunam naik sampai hujung minggu ini. Para analisis emas menjangkakan, jika harga emas boleh melepasi paras harga tertinggi USD 1000/ oz, harga pecah rekod!! Maka bull run akan terus berlaku. Tetapi sekiranya price tak berjaya melepasi tahap USD1000 / oz dan jatuh sehingga paras USD 920 / oz, maka dah boleh mula menjual semua emas yang ada, kerana musim bear run akan berlaku. Fakta ini berdasarkan fundamental report di bawah;

http://www.financialsense.com/...../0903.html

Ini pula ulasan pada satu artikel yang agak menarik minat saya dan juga pelabur emas lain, yang boleh dijadikan panduan melabur emas iaitu Bulan September adalah THE BEST MONTH FOR GOLD sebab in September berdasarkan kajian tahun-tahun yang lepas, September bull run biasanya akan mula berlaku dan ia boleh naik tinggi mengalahkan lain-lain bulan dalam setahun.Boleh liaht graf kenaikan dia pada link artikel di atas.

Kenaikan ini disebabkan 4 perkara utama demand emas amat tinggi

1. Oleh kerana India adalah pengguna emas terbesar dunia, maka musim post monsoon perayaan Diwali dan musim orang kahwin di India jadi sebab ramai rakyatnya beli emas.
2. Tukang-tukang emas mula beli stok baru emas untuk ditempa dan dijual semula untuk musim perayaan Christmas sekejap lagi di US.
3. Perayaan Hari Raya yang akan disambut pada Oktober ini menggalakkan ramai muslim seluruh dunia membeli emas awal-awal.
4. Di China, sambutan Hari Kemerdekaan yang akan bermula 1 Oktober dan sambutan festival Tahun Baru China awal tahun 2010 menggalakkan ramai rakyatnya membeli emas awal-awal.

Sumber : http://www.financialsense.com/...../0831.html

saya kira maklumat ini amat berguna kepada newbie gold investor untuk cari timing sesuai untuk beli / jual emas. Insyaallah mana yang salah minta diperbetulkan. So apa pandangan ahli forum sekelian….???

Bila harga komoditi seperti minyak mula meningkat kemungkinan besar harga emas akan turut ikut meningkat.

Royal Mint yang ditubuhkan sejak kurun ke 13 telah menggunakan lebih 75% emas dalam suku pertama tahun ini berbanding tahun-tahun terdahulu akibat peningkatan permintaan terhadap emas oleh para pelabur bagi mempelbagaikan pelaburan.